Thursday, May 6, 2010

Market timing signal May 6, 2010

Yesterday 5/5/10 and today 5/6/10 my model gave a buy signal. Since it has been only two weeks since the market peaked I am going to suggest the market may have a few days to go before it bottoms. That said the market is trading below my sell post of March 23 when the NASDAQ was about 2400. Today the NASDAQ closed near 2320 which is significantly below the 2400 where much of my long interest was sold or hedged. Any weakness below today’s close provides a buying opportunity. Do I think the markets will trade lower than today? Yes. We could be heading down significantly more. That said I think the long term trend is up. Selling at 2400 and buying back at 2300 is a four percent gain. I sold out higher than 2400 and hope to buy back less than 2300. Unless the market gaps up strongly on 5/7/2010 I will be buying back at a brisk pace. You will never sell the tops and seldom buy the bottoms but as long as you make money on your trades who cares? Market timing is about beating buy and hold.

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