Monday, May 6, 2013

An even better time to sell.

With the NASDAQ near the 3400 mark and the SP500 at record highs now is the time to sell off some of your stock market portfolio. The old adage sell in May and go away is very true this year. This market has gone straight up since mid November. I doubt it will continue.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013


Time to sell!
The NASDAQ closed at 3154 today. That is a nice high. In my opinion I believe the market will trade lower than today at some time in the next few months. My mathematical model is giving sell indiactors at this time. If you got into the market on my last buying signal you would have bought on November 13 when the NASDAQ  closed at 2883. With the S&P 500 trading near record highs it is not the time to be in the market. The market is up 10% in the last 10 weeks.
Paul

Monday, November 12, 2012

Time to buy

Well I must admit I blew it.
I was going to post back around Labor Day that it was time to take some money off of the table. Well I did not post that. (The NASDAQ was around 3200) Still if you have cash on the sidline I am adding cash to the market on any weakness here. The market may go lower as tax policy most likely will not be as favorable for investor and I do see some profit taking. (Much of it may have already taken place). The NASDAQ  closed at 2904 today. I will save my political commentary. You can listen to Chris Mathews or Rush Limbaugh for that. When others are selling and afraid it is time to buy.
 

The best Midcap Funds for 2013


The best Mid cap Funds for 2013
I have a new list of funds this time in the mid cap arena. This is the first in a series of updated funds. A wise investor always has an asset allocation and mid cap funds should be part of that allocation. I will be doing a host of new fund updates so please check back for later editions.
The best Mid cap Funds for 2013

 

Saturday, July 7, 2012

The best large cap funds 2012
I have a new set of great funds for mid 2012. This is the first of many of my updated fund 
recommendations. Stay tuned for more. If you would like to see other types of funds covered leave a comment below. Times change and so should your investments. What funds are new and which have been dropped from my preferred list? You can find out just click the link. 

 The best large cap funds 2012.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Better buy than I expected.

I called for a buy mid day on May 17. If you happened to catch my call on that day the NASDAQ closed at 2814. Assuming you work for a living as most of us do you may not have gotten in until Friday May 18 when the NASDAQ closed at 2779. I am not going to say the market bottomed last Friday. What I am saying is if you followed my advice you would be far ahead of the market than the buy and hold mentality.
I am still a buyer on weakness at these levels (the NASDAQ closed at 2839 today).

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Time to Buy!!!!

If you followed my advice last time you would have gotten out of the market on Feb 3 when the NASDAQ closed at 2905. At this point the NASDAQ is trading at 2861. This is not a significant gain this time but you were not taking the risk of the market and there is always some interst gained from money in a money market fund.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

It is time to sell.

If you have been following my posts you would have bought into the market on August 9, 2011. The NASDAQ closed that day at 2381.

At this point I recommend selling as long as the market is flat or up. Today the NASDAQ closed at 2859 which is near a ten year high. That is 20 percent over the last few months.

I believe market conditions are still favorable at this time but I also believe the market will trade lower in the future.

Monday, August 8, 2011

It is time to buy!

If you have been following my blog you would have reduced you market positions on November 8, 2010. On the Saturday before I made the call to reduce holdings in the market. On 11/08/2010 the NASDAQ closed at 2580. Today the NASDAQ closed at 2357. I am going to assume you would have made some money in a money market fund.

I have gone from a 50 percent cash position to a 130 percent long position. (Symbol TNA but in limited portions).


Saturday, April 30, 2011

The best emerging market fund

The best emerging market fund
What are the best emerging market funds? Why I really don’t like these funds even if they are the best funds which have had outstanding returns? Read The Best Emerging Markets Funds to find out.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

The 20011 IRA portfolio in trouble?

The 2011 IRA portfolio
The 2011 portfolio is out! Check it out!
Ihe 2011 portfolio is 1 percent behind the S&P 500 index as of this long Easter weekend. One percent is not a huge lead. The portfolio has 20 percent global stock funds which have not done well this year. The Westcore Select fund is up a nice 11.3 % YTD!


The 2011 IRA portfolio

Sunday, January 23, 2011

The M&I Trust 401K review

The M&I Trust 401K review
I have looked over quite a few 401K plans. This is one of the nicer plans around. Compare The M&I Trust 401K review to your 401K.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

The General Motors 401K review


The General Motors 401K review
This 401K plan is the first plan I am going to review. The plan is better than many I have looked at but far from the best. Read more about the General Motors 401K plan.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

The Closed End Fund Portfolio


The Closed End Fund Portfolio
The closed end portfolio is a list of what I believe to be the best value in closed end funds at this time. Having never lost money in a closed end fund I find them more attractive as I approach retirement. At this time I am short term bearish on the market and would wait for a market dip to add new money.
The Closed End Fund Portfolio

Friday, December 31, 2010

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Market Timing Signal 11/06/2010


The markets are now trading near their 11 year highs as of Friday. Market conditions are ripe for a dip in the market. The market may not drop next week but it is my belief that it will trade lower at some time over the next three months than it is trading at this time. The Federal Reserve is beginning to print money. This could lead to inflation which could really kill this recovery. Don’t get me wrong I think the market has room to run up and will for some time as conditions are still bullish. At this point I am taking profits and will wait for the next dip to buy back into the market. Over the past two years I was of the opinion that US small caps were the best asset class and my favorite fund Royce Low Price Stock fund RYLPX has done very well. When the next buying opportunity strikes I will make my recommendations at that time.

The 2010 portfolio continues to make money.

Fund picks for 2010

October was another great month to be in the market. as of this writing the S&P 500 up about 11 percent for the year. The S&P 500 actually outperformed the 2010 portfolio for the month of October but the 2010 has a nice lead on the market. The 2010 portfolio is up over 19% for the year. All of the funds have nice returns. The only stock fund lagging the market is the Yacktman Focus Fund which is only up 10 % for the year. The Gabelli Gold Fund is up a handsome 36.5% for the year. Coming soon is my 2011 portfolio which will feature some changes from the 2010 portfolio


Fund picks for 2010

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Fund picks for 2010

September was a great month to be in the market. The S&P 500 is now up about 4 percent for the year. Contrast that with the 2010 portfolio which is up 13.7 percent for the year as of today. The top performer is the Gabelli Gold fund which is up a handsome 32+ percent for the year to date. Also doing very well is the Janus overseas fund which is up just under 15 percent for the year. All funds in the portfolio are up more than the S&P 500 index.
Watch for my 2011 portfolio which will feature some changes from this years portfolio.

Fund picks for 2010

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

2010 portfolio keeps beating the market!

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 portfolio continues to outpace the S&P 500 for the year. The index is down 2% while the portfolio is up a nice 5.8%. Leading the way is the Gabelli Gold fund which is up nearly 20% for the year. All funds in the portfolio are up for the year. The Yacktman Focus Fund has the poorest record with a 1.6% gain.

Fund picks for 2010

Sunday, August 1, 2010

The 2010 portfolio end of July report.

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 portfolio like a broken record continues to outpace the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is down less than 1% year to date. As of this date every fund in the 2010 portfolio is making money. The portfolio is now up 5 percent for the year. The Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund is at this time the leader for the year with a seven percent gain. It seems every month when I report on this portfolio a different fund is leading the way.


Fund picks for 2010

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

The midyear report for the 2010 portfolio

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 portfolio continues to outpace the S&P 500. At this time the S&P 500 is down 7.5% year to date while the 2010portfolio is down only 1%.
Leading the way for the 2010 portfolio is the Gabelli gold fun which is up 10.5 percent year to date. The bond funds are up 2 to 3 percent and surprisingly the Ackre Focus fund is also up for the year. The other funds are down but are all outperforming the S&P 500 for the year.

Fund picks for 2010

Saturday, May 22, 2010

The 2010 IRA portfolio Bad few weeks update.

Fund picks for 2010
The 2010 portfolio is presently almost five months into the year. The S&P 500 index has had a rough month in May and is now down 2.5% For the year. The 2010 portfolio is down less than 1 percent.
The funds in the portfolio are:
JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX
CGM Realty fund

All of the funds with international exposure are weak. The bond funds and the
CGM Realty fund are gainers for the year as well as the Westcore select fund which continues to do well.



Fund picks for 2010

Monday, May 10, 2010

Market timing 5/10/2010

Well Friday I did buy back at a brisk pace. I even loaded up on mutual funds which traded at the closing price. The NASDAQ closed at 2266. It closed today at 2375. I did not expect such handsome gains in one day. Sometimes you just get lucky.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Market timing signal May 6, 2010

Yesterday 5/5/10 and today 5/6/10 my model gave a buy signal. Since it has been only two weeks since the market peaked I am going to suggest the market may have a few days to go before it bottoms. That said the market is trading below my sell post of March 23 when the NASDAQ was about 2400. Today the NASDAQ closed near 2320 which is significantly below the 2400 where much of my long interest was sold or hedged. Any weakness below today’s close provides a buying opportunity. Do I think the markets will trade lower than today? Yes. We could be heading down significantly more. That said I think the long term trend is up. Selling at 2400 and buying back at 2300 is a four percent gain. I sold out higher than 2400 and hope to buy back less than 2300. Unless the market gaps up strongly on 5/7/2010 I will be buying back at a brisk pace. You will never sell the tops and seldom buy the bottoms but as long as you make money on your trades who cares? Market timing is about beating buy and hold.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

The 2010 IRA portfolio April update.

Fund picks for 2010
The 2010 portfolio is presently four months into the year. The S&P 500 index had a positive month in April and is now up 6.4% the 2010 portfolio is up 7.7 percent.
The funds in the portfolio are:
JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

The Janus Overseas Fund which had been leading the pack suffered a setback in April, as did the Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund and the Wintergreen Fund. These funds have significant holdings in nations which did not perform as well as the United States markets in April. Making up for the lack luster performance of the overseas funds were the funds which invest primarily in domestic stocks. The CGM Realty fund is now up 16.5% for the year and the Westcore Select Fund is up 14%. The GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund which had been lagging is now up 7.6% about even with the total portfolio. The performance differences from month to month underscore the importance of diversification in your portfolio.



Fund picks for 2010