Market timing signal

Yesterday 3/22/10 my model gave another sell signal. This is the fifth this month. At this time a pull back would appear likely. Several other indicators I use would bear that out. How far will the market pull back and when? I do not claim to know. I am not always correct either. The likely hood of the market trading significantly below where it is at the time of this writing (NASDAQ almost 2400) is in my opinion quite high.

Timing the markets one you can take to the bank

I have been writing for a couple of weeks that the stock market is nearing a short term peak. I think that peak is here or will happen soon. Market timing the market is very difficult to do. There is one case where timing your investments is an obvious. Right now interest rates are low. I don’t think you can find an economist who thinks interest rates are going to go lower. As interest rates rise the value of long and intermediate term bond funds will drop. Think about holding a bond with 10 years to maturity paying 3 percent. Let’s assume interest rates have risen. New 10 year bond are now paying say 10 percent. If you want to sell your 3 percent bond who is going to pay you face value for the bond? To sell the bond you would have to sell it below face value. This is true with long and intermediate term bond funds at this time. I would not hold these types of funds at this time. If you are going to be in a bond fund be in a short term bond fund.Fund picks for 2010 a sample portfolio. The bond fund is short term with some global exposure as well as a small holding in high yield bonds.

2010 portfollio March 12

The 2010 portfolio which I published on Hubpages in an article entitled Fund picks for 2010 continues to beat the S&P500 index. The portfolio is up 4.4 percent year to date while the S&P500 is up 3.1 percent year to date.
The portfolio consists of the following funds.

JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

All of the funds except the gold fund are up. The Gabelli Gold fund is down for the year but only down less than 2 percent. The biggest winners to date are the Westcore select fund up almost 7.2 percent and the Janus overseas fund up 6.5 percent.

Again I published this portfolio Fund picks for 2010 on Hubpages.

Market timing signal part 2

I wrote on March 2 that I had received a sell signal on March 1. I also stated that in a true uptrend that this signal would be generated a few times over the next few trading sessions. That did happen on March 4 and March 10. I think at this point the market will go higher. I also believe it will trade at some point lower than today. As of this writing the NASDAQ is at 2356. I would consider this a good time to take a little money off of the table on strength. I do think the market will go higher over the next two weeks but I would not bet the farm on it.

Market timing signal part1

I have been writing about market timing for some time now. Today I will write about the latest signals. First most technical indicators tell us we are in an up trend which I expect to continue for some time. On January 26 my model generated a buy signal indicating a green light to buy if the NASDAQ dropped below 2200 on January 27. The market did drop below 2200 on that day and I did begin to buy. This signal was designed for 401K investing therefore it is often a little premature. When I get this signal it is time to buy on any weakness and buy slowly. My average cost on the NASDAQ was about 2165 because I dollar cost averaged down. If an investor had purchased on January 27 when the NASDAQ was below 2200 they would have done well to date as the NASDAQ is at 2285 at this moment.
On March 1 my model gave a sell signal. In an up trend I tend to ignore the first sell signal. In a true uptrend this signal will go off and on for several days and the off for a week or two then on. When it goes back on in two three weeks history shows it is time to sell some assets but not all! Getting back to the March 1 signal it is only valid if the market hits 2280 which it has. Since the market has hit 2280 it is a time to take some profits even though I believe the market will see higher numbers over the course of the month.