Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Market timing signal part1

I have been writing about market timing for some time now. Today I will write about the latest signals. First most technical indicators tell us we are in an up trend which I expect to continue for some time. On January 26 my model generated a buy signal indicating a green light to buy if the NASDAQ dropped below 2200 on January 27. The market did drop below 2200 on that day and I did begin to buy. This signal was designed for 401K investing therefore it is often a little premature. When I get this signal it is time to buy on any weakness and buy slowly. My average cost on the NASDAQ was about 2165 because I dollar cost averaged down. If an investor had purchased on January 27 when the NASDAQ was below 2200 they would have done well to date as the NASDAQ is at 2285 at this moment.
On March 1 my model gave a sell signal. In an up trend I tend to ignore the first sell signal. In a true uptrend this signal will go off and on for several days and the off for a week or two then on. When it goes back on in two three weeks history shows it is time to sell some assets but not all! Getting back to the March 1 signal it is only valid if the market hits 2280 which it has. Since the market has hit 2280 it is a time to take some profits even though I believe the market will see higher numbers over the course of the month.

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