The 2011 IRA portfolio

The 2011 IRA portfolio
The 2011 portfolio is out! Check it out!
The 2011 IRA portfolio

Market Timing Signal 11/06/2010

The markets are now trading near their 11 year highs as of Friday. Market conditions are ripe for a dip in the market. The market may not drop next week but it is my belief that it will trade lower at some time over the next three months than it is trading at this time. The Federal Reserve is beginning to print money. This could lead to inflation which could really kill this recovery. Don’t get me wrong I think the market has room to run up and will for some time as conditions are still bullish. At this point I am taking profits and will wait for the next dip to buy back into the market. Over the past two years I was of the opinion that US small caps were the best asset class and my favorite fund Royce Low Price Stock fund RYLPX has done very well. When the next buying opportunity strikes I will make my recommendations at that time.

The 2010 portfolio continues to make money.

Fund picks for 2010

October was another great month to be in the market. as of this writing the S&P 500 up about 11 percent for the year. The S&P 500 actually outperformed the 2010 portfolio for the month of October but the 2010 has a nice lead on the market. The 2010 portfolio is up over 19% for the year. All of the funds have nice returns. The only stock fund lagging the market is the Yacktman Focus Fund which is only up 10 % for the year. The Gabelli Gold Fund is up a handsome 36.5% for the year. Coming soon is my 2011 portfolio which will feature some changes from the 2010 portfolio


Fund picks for 2010

Fund picks for 2010

September was a great month to be in the market. The S&P 500 is now up about 4 percent for the year. Contrast that with the 2010 portfolio which is up 13.7 percent for the year as of today. The top performer is the Gabelli Gold fund which is up a handsome 32+ percent for the year to date. Also doing very well is the Janus overseas fund which is up just under 15 percent for the year. All funds in the portfolio are up more than the S&P 500 index.
Watch for my 2011 portfolio which will feature some changes from this years portfolio.

Fund picks for 2010

2010 portfolio keeps beating the market!

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 portfolio continues to outpace the S&P 500 for the year. The index is down 2% while the portfolio is up a nice 5.8%. Leading the way is the Gabelli Gold fund which is up nearly 20% for the year. All funds in the portfolio are up for the year. The Yacktman Focus Fund has the poorest record with a 1.6% gain.

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 portfolio end of July report.

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 portfolio like a broken record continues to outpace the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is down less than 1% year to date. As of this date every fund in the 2010 portfolio is making money. The portfolio is now up 5 percent for the year. The Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund is at this time the leader for the year with a seven percent gain. It seems every month when I report on this portfolio a different fund is leading the way.


Fund picks for 2010

The midyear report for the 2010 portfolio

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 portfolio continues to outpace the S&P 500. At this time the S&P 500 is down 7.5% year to date while the 2010portfolio is down only 1%.
Leading the way for the 2010 portfolio is the Gabelli gold fun which is up 10.5 percent year to date. The bond funds are up 2 to 3 percent and surprisingly the Ackre Focus fund is also up for the year. The other funds are down but are all outperforming the S&P 500 for the year.

Fund picks for 2010

The 2010 IRA portfolio Bad few weeks update.

Fund picks for 2010
The 2010 portfolio is presently almost five months into the year. The S&P 500 index has had a rough month in May and is now down 2.5% For the year. The 2010 portfolio is down less than 1 percent.
The funds in the portfolio are:
JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

All of the funds with international exposure are weak. The bond funds and the CGM Realty fund are gainers for the year as well as the Westcore select fund which continues to do well.



Fund picks for 2010

Market timing 5/10/2010

Well Friday I did buy back at a brisk pace. I even loaded up on mutual funds which traded at the closing price. The NASDAQ closed at 2266. It closed today at 2375. I did not expect such handsome gains in one day. Sometimes you just get lucky.

Market timing signal May 6, 2010

Yesterday 5/5/10 and today 5/6/10 my model gave a buy signal. Since it has been only two weeks since the market peaked I am going to suggest the market may have a few days to go before it bottoms. That said the market is trading below my sell post of March 23 when the NASDAQ was about 2400. Today the NASDAQ closed near 2320 which is significantly below the 2400 where much of my long interest was sold or hedged. Any weakness below today’s close provides a buying opportunity. Do I think the markets will trade lower than today? Yes. We could be heading down significantly more. That said I think the long term trend is up. Selling at 2400 and buying back at 2300 is a four percent gain. I sold out higher than 2400 and hope to buy back less than 2300. Unless the market gaps up strongly on 5/7/2010 I will be buying back at a brisk pace. You will never sell the tops and seldom buy the bottoms but as long as you make money on your trades who cares? Market timing is about beating buy and hold.

The 2010 IRA portfolio April update.

Fund picks for 2010
The 2010 portfolio is presently four months into the year. The S&P 500 index had a positive month in April and is now up 6.4% the 2010 portfolio is up 7.7 percent.
The funds in the portfolio are:
JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

The Janus Overseas Fund which had been leading the pack suffered a setback in April, as did the Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund and the Wintergreen Fund. These funds have significant holdings in nations which did not perform as well as the United States markets in April. Making up for the lack luster performance of the overseas funds were the funds which invest primarily in domestic stocks. The CGM Realty fund is now up 16.5% for the year and the Westcore Select Fund is up 14%. The GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund which had been lagging is now up 7.6% about even with the total portfolio. The performance differences from month to month underscore the importance of diversification in your portfolio.



Fund picks for 2010

Market timing update

The NASDAQ closed at 2402 on Thursday which is where it was when I last wrote on the subject March 23. The market has to move at some point up or down. At this point I would expect any strong move to the upside to be met with stiff resistance. At this point a pull back would not necessarily be significant (perhaps 2325 on the NASDAQ). I am not adding to long or short positions.

The 2010 IRA portfolio Easter report

Fund picks for 2010
The 2010 portfolio is now three months plus a day weeks into the year. The S&P 500 index is up 5.6% the 2010 portfolio is up 6.65 percent.
The funds in the portfolio are:
JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

The portfolio is being lead by it's largest holding the Janus overseas fund which is up a full 9 percent and the Westcore Select Fund which is up 9.2 percent. Dragging performance down are the bond funds and the GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund which are all up around 2.75 percent.
Fund picks for 2010

Market timing signal

Yesterday 3/22/10 my model gave another sell signal. This is the fifth this month. At this time a pull back would appear likely. Several other indicators I use would bear that out. How far will the market pull back and when? I do not claim to know. I am not always correct either. The likely hood of the market trading significantly below where it is at the time of this writing (NASDAQ almost 2400) is in my opinion quite high.

Timing the markets one you can take to the bank

I have been writing for a couple of weeks that the stock market is nearing a short term peak. I think that peak is here or will happen soon. Market timing the market is very difficult to do. There is one case where timing your investments is an obvious. Right now interest rates are low. I don’t think you can find an economist who thinks interest rates are going to go lower. As interest rates rise the value of long and intermediate term bond funds will drop. Think about holding a bond with 10 years to maturity paying 3 percent. Let’s assume interest rates have risen. New 10 year bond are now paying say 10 percent. If you want to sell your 3 percent bond who is going to pay you face value for the bond? To sell the bond you would have to sell it below face value. This is true with long and intermediate term bond funds at this time. I would not hold these types of funds at this time. If you are going to be in a bond fund be in a short term bond fund.Fund picks for 2010 a sample portfolio. The bond fund is short term with some global exposure as well as a small holding in high yield bonds.

2010 portfollio March 12

The 2010 portfolio which I published on Hubpages in an article entitled Fund picks for 2010 continues to beat the S&P500 index. The portfolio is up 4.4 percent year to date while the S&P500 is up 3.1 percent year to date.
The portfolio consists of the following funds.

JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

All of the funds except the gold fund are up. The Gabelli Gold fund is down for the year but only down less than 2 percent. The biggest winners to date are the Westcore select fund up almost 7.2 percent and the Janus overseas fund up 6.5 percent.

Again I published this portfolio Fund picks for 2010 on Hubpages.

Market timing signal part 2

I wrote on March 2 that I had received a sell signal on March 1. I also stated that in a true uptrend that this signal would be generated a few times over the next few trading sessions. That did happen on March 4 and March 10. I think at this point the market will go higher. I also believe it will trade at some point lower than today. As of this writing the NASDAQ is at 2356. I would consider this a good time to take a little money off of the table on strength. I do think the market will go higher over the next two weeks but I would not bet the farm on it.

Market timing signal part1

I have been writing about market timing for some time now. Today I will write about the latest signals. First most technical indicators tell us we are in an up trend which I expect to continue for some time. On January 26 my model generated a buy signal indicating a green light to buy if the NASDAQ dropped below 2200 on January 27. The market did drop below 2200 on that day and I did begin to buy. This signal was designed for 401K investing therefore it is often a little premature. When I get this signal it is time to buy on any weakness and buy slowly. My average cost on the NASDAQ was about 2165 because I dollar cost averaged down. If an investor had purchased on January 27 when the NASDAQ was below 2200 they would have done well to date as the NASDAQ is at 2285 at this moment.
On March 1 my model gave a sell signal. In an up trend I tend to ignore the first sell signal. In a true uptrend this signal will go off and on for several days and the off for a week or two then on. When it goes back on in two three weeks history shows it is time to sell some assets but not all! Getting back to the March 1 signal it is only valid if the market hits 2280 which it has. Since the market has hit 2280 it is a time to take some profits even though I believe the market will see higher numbers over the course of the month.

The 2010 portfolio results for the end of February.

The 2010 portfolio which I published on Hubpages in an article entitled Fund picks for 2010 continues to edge out the S&P500 index. The portfolio is down a whopping 0.26% while the S&P 500 index is down almost 1%.
The portfolio consists of the following funds.

JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

Most of the funds are where they started based on the Decemeber 31 closing price. The ones that have performed the best are the PIMCO low duration bond fund, Artio Global High Income, Westcore Select Fund ,and the Akre Focus Fund. I am not surprised that the bond funds are in positive territory. The fact that two focus funds Westcore and Akre are both in positive territory speaks well of the fund management.
The gold fund is down over 6 percent which is the only real laggard. These results fortify my thinking that an investor should only put a small portion of their portfolio into a sector fund.
Again I published this portfolio Fund picks for 2010 on Hubpages.

Timing the markets part 3: How I got started timing.

Timing the markets part 3: How I got started timing.

I have always been interested in market crashes and bear markets. I remember the bear market of 1974. I remember people telling me that taking money to Wall Street was tantamount to flushing it down the toilet. The market surged for a few years before another pull back. Here almost 40 years later the market has never dropped close to the levels seen then. In the four years following October 1974 the NASDAQ nearly tripled in value. That taught me a lesson I will never forget. When everyone is giving up on the stock market buy!

In late 1990 I was getting sick of my funds dropping like crazy. I was in a 401K which had 3 choices, balanced, growth and aggressive. I remember getting angry and moving it all from balanced to aggressive. I figured if I was going to lose it I may as well lose it all fast. It turns out I was either very lucky or very good.

In February 2000 I happened to tune into a guy by the name of Bob Brinker who was telling his listeners to get out of the market. Bob was giving specific reasons from a technical and economic view why he felt the market was overvalued. I watched in awe as the market dropped in the following months. Perhaps the market could be timed.

As it turns out I was working for a badly managed company that has since gone bankrupt. I had a boss who ordered me to sit out on the production floor 12 hours a day and watch a machine run. This machine was worth about 50 million and needed to run. I was to be there to fix it. After a month of reading robot manuals and pneumatic schematics it was time to do something else with my time. Reading the paper got dull (as well as being forbidden by company policy) as did listening to the guys running the machine telling the same story day after day. I decided to take load up my lap top with as much data as I could with market data and determine any patterns that may exist.

I had spent years working on machinery and knew that if you could predict failure or production increases based on things most people never see. Could this be done with the stock market as well? I did not have to predict every break down nor did I have to predict every production increase, just if an event happened I wanted to be sure the line would break down of production would increase. To look at it from the stock market perspective I just needed to know if an event happened would the market go up or would the market go down depending on the event.

I spent the next few weeks with tons of data creating spread sheets to predict the next moves in the stock market. I still use those formulas today. Even those I dismissed as being somewhat ineffective, I resurrected and back filled with 9 years of data I found to be somewhat effective in predicting the markets movements.

Why I time the markets part 2. How I did over 10 years.

How well have I done? I often said I wish I would have been sent an email to tell me when to sell and buy. It never comes. Even if it did would you believe it? On May 6, 2001 I was listening to the Bob Brinker radio show. A caller came on with a heavy Middle East accent and stated you stock market is going to crash on September 11. Mr. Brinker the host stated that he had not made that call and that to make such a call would be purely speculative. The caller responded no you not make call I make call you call it 911! The caller hung up. I along with approximately one million listeners had just been given a stock tip which turned out to be very valid. I dismissed the man as being some kind of fool and no one could predict the stock market crashing on September 11. It turns out the man was correct. Unless you are living in a vacuum are well aware of the events of September 11 which changed our lives forever.

The truth is all one has to do is turn on CNBC or FOX Business and you will get a host of predictions where the market is going. Like the terrorist they are hard to believe. With so many opinions one of them has to be correct.

Over the last 10 years how have I done? I wish I would have done better but according to my calculations I am up 60 percent over buy and hold not including interest earned!

My major actions have been.
February 2000. I took 100 percent of my money out of the market and went to cash. (Good call) at that time the NASDAQ traded in the 4000 to 4500 range.
May 30, and 31 2000. I put about 10% of my assets in each day (20% total). NASDAQ was in the 3425 area.
June 21, 2000 I sold out. NASDAQ closed at 4064 that day.
July 26 through 28, 2000 I put the money back in that I had taken out in June. NASDAQ was about 3800.
August 23-28, 2000 I took the money out again. This time the NASDAQ was about 4050.
October 18 through 31, 2000 I put 100% back in the market (big mistake). The NASDAQ averaged 3250 on the days I added money. This is still much lower than when it was taken out of the market in February.

November 4 through November 12, 2004 I took out 50 percent of all my holdings from the NASDAQ which averages 2050 during this time.
April 20, 2005 I put the money taken out the pervious November back in. The NASDQ closed just below 1914.

April 27 to July 19, 2007 I sold off 40 percent of my stock portfolio and bought it back from July 26 to August 10, 2007. This was a long sell off and a long buy back. The average sell on the NASDAQ was 2650 the average buy back was 2575. Not a significant gains but a gain none the less.
Does market timing work? Yes but do not expect to sell at the top and buy the bottom no matter how good you are.

Why I time the markets

A lot of so called experts will tell you that you cannot time the markets. I respectfully disagree. Very few people will disagree that if you could time the markets you could get rich very rapidly. If I had next weeks paper I am sure I could generate more than a million dollars in the stock market. I could make just as much betting on sports contests, Better yet for a few bucks I could buy a few lottery tickets and strike it rich the easy way. None of those things are going to happen.

My goal in market timing is to beat the market (buy and hold). I do not have to pick a top nor do I need to pick a bottom. I need to be able to do sell when the market is high and buy back a similar security when the market is lower. Conversely you can time the markets by buying when it is low and selling when it is higher. I prefer to buy high and sell lower. I cannot often sell at the top and seldom do I wait for the bottom. If you sell a mutual fund at $20 per share and buy it back at 18 you have 11 percent more shares. That does not even include any interest you may have received in your money market. How many times do you have to do this before you double your money? In the example shown you need to sell and buy seven times.

How many times has the NASDAQ dropped 10% after peaking in the last 10 years? I counted 19. That would be over a seven fold increase over buy and hold assuming you bought back at a 10% drop each time. If you caught just ten of those you are talking a three fold increase.

Timing the market has the potential for huge gains. Can it be done?

Next blog how did I do over the last 10 years?

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Select the best concentrated portfolio funds

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The 2010 IRA portfolio

The 2010 portfolio is now six weeks into the year. I am posting the chart of the portfolio.
JAOSX Janus overseas fund
RYLPX Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund
PLDDX PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund
WTSLX Westcore Select Fund
LZOEX. Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Fund
AKREX Akre Focus Fund
GOLDX. GAMCO (Gabelli) Gold fund
YAFFX Yacktman Focus Fund
WGRNX Wintergreen Fund
BJBHX Artio Global High Income
CGMRX CGM Realty fund

As of February 13, 2010 this portfolio is down 2.1 percent while the S&P500 is down 3.54% year to date. The 2010 portfolio was up almost 2% last week compared to the S&P500 which was up about 1%.

To read more about Fund picks for 2010

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The best small cap funds

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